The future of technology?

[Dullstar]

So, what do you think about the future of technology?

Microchips:

[ccexplore]

If history is any guide, whatever predictions people put down here right now will most likely turn out to be wildly off the mark by the time the future actually happens. http://www.lemmingsforums.com/Smileys/lemmings/winktounge.gif" alt=";P" title="Wink-Tongue" class="smiley" />

As for the microchip thing, I can tell you right now that the existing silicon-based technologies is starting to approach fundamental limits (from the laws of physics) for how small they can shrink it.  (This is partly why recent microchips tend to be multicore--a way to increase speed without shrinking the individual transistors.)  That's not to say they might not be able to circumvene it by using some totally different, non-silicon-based (or even non-transistor-based) technologies, just that it would not be a radical prediction either to say that microchips will stop shrinking in the future.

[Yawg]

Quantum computers  http://www.lemmingsforums.com/Smileys/lemmings/cool.gif" alt="8)" title="Cool" class="smiley" />

[Dullstar]

Maybe I should have said that mine was a joke...

[ccexplore]

Actually, I just realize I totally didn't read Dullstar's "joke" right (I didn't notice he was talking about the entire chip itself).  Yeah, I'm afraid at that magnification you're at the level of individual atoms. http://www.lemmingsforums.com/Smileys/lemmings/wink.gif" alt=";)" title="Wink" class="smiley" />

(Then again, wouldn't it be really funny if in the really far future, Dullstar's joke somehow manages not to be a joke?  http://www.lemmingsforums.com/Smileys/lemmings/shocked.gif" alt=":o" title="Shocked" class="smiley" /> http://www.lemmingsforums.com/Smileys/lemmings/winktounge.gif" alt=";P" title="Wink-Tongue" class="smiley" />)

[GigaLem]

WoW that is tiny
LOL

[Mr. K]

Hm, the future of tech.
In computers I really hope that solid-state storage becomes affordable and wide spread soon.  This mechanical hard drive stuff just doesn't agree with me (as somebody who has one that's in the middle of fizzing out as I type this)
Another interesting thing to consider about computers is that it seems like upgrades are less and less necessary, almost like we're going to level off in terms of what is required to compute (while at the same time the ceiling still rises, for the sake of enthusiasts who will be able to get faster and faster machines without requirements catching up).  I mean, if you bought a computer in 1995 it was pretty much unusable five years later, even with upgrades, whereas my desktop is pushing 5 right now and is still completely usable and I'm not in any dire need to buy something new.  Heck, I have an 8 year old laptop and it's happily chugging along, fully up to date Windows XP, able to do everything I need in my everyday computing life.

[Dullstar]

Hmm, solid-state storage?  What's that?

[Mr. K]

You haven't heard about solid state drives??

They're basically hard drives based on flash memory instead of the old mechanical read-head+a ton of spinning platters model that we have used for so long.  The biggest advantage is that they're much more durable (nothing's going to break them short of smashing it with a hammer or an electrical shock) but they also are much faster because there is no need for the read-head to run around trying to find where the data is-- access times are near-instantaneous.

[Dullstar]

Although I must ask, how are the read/write cycles gonna work out?

I mean, you get a lot, but they aren't unlimited, right?

[Mr. K]

While technically write cycles are indeed an issue, the truth is that if you do the math you'd have to constantly write to the drive 24/7 for more than 15 years on most of the drives to wear them out.  Plus we have great advances like wear leveling that make sure all parts of the drive get an equal beating.

[GuyPerfect]

I'm still rooting for photonic equipment. Even some rather archaic designs would out-perform electronic stuff handsomely, as light is just that much more efficient.

[ccexplore]

Vast advances in battery/portable energy technologies would be great.  Imagine laptop batteries that are only the size of button cells, but only needs to be recharged, say, once every month.

[Liebatron]

"what is required to compute"

This is an interesting idea... At what point does the future get really boring because there's no further need for faster computing? At what point does the speed at which the computer works become irrelevant because it's always faster than the user is capable of responding?

Anyway, I don't really think we can rely on the past as a guide for what's to come.

In 1970... Maybe it was 1980, maybe 1960, it really doesn't matter, some guy predicted that the number of transistors humans could fit into a given area would rise by some ridiculous factor every year thereafter. He had no historical precedent for this prediction, in fact it contradicted the past, and yet he turned out to be exactly right.

[Liebatron]

"light is just that much more efficient."

Light would be nice, but it's really quite problematic as a Data Transfer method.

Basically it's too fast. It's difficult to control the flow of light because it's so fast. Electrical communications and logic is possible because it's actually pretty slow. Electricity moves actually pretty slowly, it's just that because what you're actually controlling is at the most basic level a force, not a physical object, all the electrons in circuit X start moving at once when you apply potential difference.

So sorry, but unless you can slow down light quite a bit, it's not incredibly feasible.

I think we've about reached the limits of physics' ability to provide the answers. If I'm wrong, alert the press.

Instead I think we gotta look at how we can organize what we have better.